Automotive Industry Trends

You know my opinion on this: Where are all the Tesla's on the roads? I don't see them.

Why there are no Tesla's on the road, I'd say it is a matter of numbers.

Pick one model from one manufacturer and count how many you see in a day. Some very popular models you may see a handful of, other makes and models may not be seen in days or weeks.

This site has some interesting charts showing Tesla production to several big producers like VW, Ford, BMW, and Toyota: http://mediakix.com/2017/07/tesla-vs-the-world-infographic-model-3/#gs.=ieBKDM

Even if Tesla shut down operations tomorrow, I'd call them a success. They have broken into, and disrupted a very complex, regulated, and competitive market. There are waiting lists that stretch to months and years for future purchases. They are producing a high demand product. That they can produce and sell the Model 3 at an "affordable price" is quite amazing.

So while I agree that Tesla is disrupting the automotive industry with truly game changing technology, I do not agree in calling them a success yet.

Yes there are tons of pre-orders, but the down payment was what $1K-$2K (fully refundable). There are still many people who I know that pre-ordered the Model 3, but they still don't have it. So now as they continue to wait, more and more car manufacturers are using the Tesla technology to produce their own electric cars that serve as an easy substitute for the Tesla model 3 that has yet to ramp up it's production to meet the "demand".

So now this means people who wanted a Tesla will be able to get their full refund and purchase a comparable car for a better price (lower manufacturing costs, established distribution centers) and most important of all these alternatives cars will actually exist and the consumer will be able to drive it off the lot.

I will consider Tesla a success when they are able to produce enough supply to meet demand. Until then I believe that consumers will not wait forever when an alternative vehicle emerges.

Have Ferrari succeed?

Have Lamborghini succeed?

The fact is all big and smart automaker talk with tesla to make cars with your technology. This new vehicles will paying royalties to Tesla.

Tesla will grow healthy. Just close your doors if you want. I believe more in a big automaker to absorb it for a good price, but I do not think that the owners would deliver it of tray.

^^ _|,,|

So yes Ferrari and Lamborghini have succeeded because they have become well established leaders in the luxury car market.

However, it seems that Tesla is trying to go main stream with the Model 3. Meaning they want to compete with car manufacturers like Ford and GM. I think they have a lot of ground to make up to even get to the level of the production that those two companies have. Currently they are not able to meet even the basic demand for their Model 3 from pre-orders.

Also, Tesla will not make any royalties off of the technology. Elon made all the patents free to the public. Meaning he will not receive any royalties.

If you could convince me that Tesla is able to scale up manufacturing in a big way, then I would begin to think it could end up a big success.

A success, yes!

In terms of battery development? Definitely. They've rekindled an industry that would never have funded the development necessary to making it a reality. IMO, it had to be an outsider; GM and Ford's petrol ties are just too strong. GM's petrol ties and the politics of such alliances are what led to the demise of the EV-1. Anyone remember that car? I know a number of engineers--most now retired--that worked on that project and, according to them, it was a huge success but never made it off the ground for political reasons.

Yes, Tesla has missed projected Model 3 production number numbers, but not by much and certainly not to the degree that many naysayers were projecting.

"You can't win 'em all"... but from the standpoint of shaking up an industry? How could anyone not see a success there?

The advent of the electric car, as a feasible platform, has changed every thought process about designing an automobile. That and tighter MPG regulations are driving the future of auto design and in my mind, that shake-up is exactly what was needed.

Not that this hasn't been tried before. If you want an interesting read, look up the Rocky Mountain Institutes "Hypercar" project. I believe this was late '90's. That project outline hits on many of the problems associated with the application of 'old' auto thinking in terms of design and manufacture. They presented these findings to the big 3 but again, Tesla was the bigger oar to veer that battleship off course.

Uber is coming too! Car, bird or plane !? No, he's superman! Oops, neither is Uber! ^^

Great discussion on this thread!

We just wrote about Tesla over on the GrabCAD blog, and the article agrees and disagrees with a lot of your thoughts here.

You can check it out here:

https://blog.grabcad.com/blog/2018/04/12/some-updates-on-tesla/

Curious to hear feedback on this article? Agree? Disagree? Why?

Bad news for Tesla yesterday:

http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/12/news/companies/tesla-layoffs/index.html

Is this the end?

Tesla stock has been doing well, and people are actually starting to receive their Tesla that they ordered nearly a year ago.

I still think production is the hardest part of them, but my pessimistic view has started to change.

Any engineers think there are other issues that haven't been addresses?

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/10/24/tesla-market-value-short-sellers-burned/

About time!

I've been seeing more and more Teslas showing up in the parking lots where I work. I also took a ride in one last week, it was great.

Now I'm calculating the numbers to determine annual ownership costs, and compare those numbers to my current car. A Tesla will cost me an extra $500 per year. But all of that comes from personal property taxes ($11 for my current car(!), $1,200 for a Tesla).

I think my next car will be a Tesla Model 3

An interesting aspect of Tesla, is the interest people have in them. When someone buys a new car, it is usually no big deal. When someone buys a Tesla, it is time to go sit in it, look it over, and ask to go for a drive. That doesn't happen when someone buys a typical new car.

Battery life is an obvious risk. Not to mention reduced mileage in cold weather. If someone needs that 250 - 300 mile range to commute, they might be unhappy come winter when the range drops by 40% (depending on temperature).

I'm not an expert on the matter, but I found it interesting to read the Tesla warranty, and note that damage due to cyber attacks, virus, or malware is not covered (pg. 7).

For an always online car, I hope there are some very strong protections built in. I think it only took four years to break the DVD protection scheme, and that is a huge industry compared to a single car company. Hopefully the constant updates reduce the risk.

I'm sure it was taken into account, but I was surprised to learn how heavy a Tesla is. A model S looks to be about 4,600 pounds. Model 3 is 3,500 - 4,000 pounds (depending on options). Doubling the mass of a car has to have an effect on the tires and suspension. Of course the weight of the car makes the acceleration rates even more surprising.

2020 is there. Fact. Where is the flying Uber?